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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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Trudeau Acknowledges: Trump's Annexation Threat Is More Than Just Banter

In a surprising hot-mic moment at a closed-door business summit in Toronto, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau candidly remarked that U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk of absorbing Canada as the “51st state” might be more than just playful rhetoric. Speaking to a group of business and labor leaders, Trudeau suggested that Trump’s persistent focus on Canada’s abundant critical minerals and economic assets could indicate a serious—if unlikely—plan to use economic pressure to reshape North American trade relations.

Trudeau’s off-the-record comments, inadvertently captured when his microphone was left on, reveal growing concern among Canadian officials about the long-term political and economic implications of Trump’s expansionist language. While public statements from both leaders have dismissed the notion as mere jest, the prime minister’s remarks underscore that the threat of steep tariffs and aggressive trade tactics is real enough to prompt a strategic national response.

Despite the provocative exchange, Canadian leaders remain united in dismissing any possibility of annexation. They emphasize that Canada’s legal framework, political will, and national pride make any merger with the United States practically unfeasible. The incident has reignited debates on how best to safeguard Canada’s economic interests and reinforce its sovereignty amid unpredictable U.S. policies.

Trudeau’s unexpected admission serves as a reminder that beneath the surface of international trade negotiations and political posturing, the stakes remain high for Canada as it navigates a challenging relationship with its powerful neighbor.

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