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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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A Step Toward Peace: Russia and Ukraine Agree to Maritime Truce and Energy Attack Ban

In a significant development, Russia and Ukraine have reached separate agreements to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. These agreements, mediated by the United States, mark a potential turning point in the three-year-long conflict between the two nations.

The accords, finalized during talks in Saudi Arabia, aim to reduce hostilities and pave the way for broader peace negotiations. Both nations have expressed skepticism about the other's commitment to the agreements, emphasizing the need for U.S. enforcement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that any violations by Russia would prompt requests for sanctions and additional military support.

While the agreements represent progress, challenges remain. Maritime battles have been a smaller part of the conflict since 2023, but energy infrastructure has been a frequent target for both sides. The success of these agreements will depend on mutual adherence and effective enforcement.

This development offers a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the ongoing war, but the road to lasting peace remains uncertain.

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