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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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A Step Toward Peace: Russia and Ukraine Agree to Maritime Truce and Energy Attack Ban

In a significant development, Russia and Ukraine have reached separate agreements to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. These agreements, mediated by the United States, mark a potential turning point in the three-year-long conflict between the two nations.

The accords, finalized during talks in Saudi Arabia, aim to reduce hostilities and pave the way for broader peace negotiations. Both nations have expressed skepticism about the other's commitment to the agreements, emphasizing the need for U.S. enforcement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that any violations by Russia would prompt requests for sanctions and additional military support.

While the agreements represent progress, challenges remain. Maritime battles have been a smaller part of the conflict since 2023, but energy infrastructure has been a frequent target for both sides. The success of these agreements will depend on mutual adherence and effective enforcement.

This development offers a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the ongoing war, but the road to lasting peace remains uncertain.

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