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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Aid Blockade Intensifies Ceasefire Standoff Between Israel and Hamas

In a significant escalation of tensions, Israel has halted the entry of all goods and supplies into the Gaza Strip, aiming to pressure Hamas into accepting a new ceasefire proposal. This move comes as the first phase of a fragile ceasefire expired, leaving both sides at an impasse over the terms of a potential extension.

The Israeli government, in coordination with U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff, proposed extending the ceasefire through Ramadan and Passover, which end on April 20. Under this plan, Hamas would release half of the remaining hostages on the first day, with the rest to follow upon reaching a permanent ceasefire agreement. However, Hamas has accused Israel of violating the truce and using aid as leverage, calling the blockade "cheap extortion" and a "war crime".

The first phase of the ceasefire, which began in January, saw a surge in humanitarian aid and the release of hostages on both sides. Yet, disputes over alleged violations marred the truce, with each side blaming the other for breaches. The blockade now threatens to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where the population heavily relies on international aid for survival.

As negotiations stall, the international community watches closely, urging both parties to find a resolution that prioritizes peace and humanitarian needs. The situation remains precarious, with the potential for further escalation if an agreement is not reached soon.

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