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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Canada Strikes Back with $29.8 Billion in Tariffs on U.S. Goods

 

In a bold move to counter U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs worth $29.8 billion. The new measures, set to take effect on March 13, 2025, will impose a 25% tariff on a range of U.S. imports, including steel, aluminum, computers, sports equipment, and cast-iron products.

Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc emphasized the importance of protecting Canada's industries, stating that these tariffs are a direct response to the U.S.'s "unjustified" actions. The Canadian government has also introduced measures to support affected workers and businesses, including financial aid and trade programs.

This development marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the two nations, with both sides standing firm on their positions. The impact of these tariffs is expected to ripple through industries on both sides of the border, potentially affecting prices and supply chains.

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