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Markets Digest Hot U.S. Inflation as Iran Tensions Keep Oil Elevated

Publication:  moneysavings.ca / Canadian Money Brief  Date:  Tuesday, May 13, 2026 The TSX opens cautiously Wednesday after hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data rattled Wall Street on Tuesday, while Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to lift energy stocks and pressure the loonie toward 1.35 against the greenback. TSX ~34,291 S&P 500 7,400.96 ▼0.16% WTI Oil ~$102/bbl ▲ Gold ~$4,721 USD/oz ▼ USD/CAD ~1.35 US CPI Apr 3.8% ▲ (est. 3.7%) Market Overview Canadian investors are starting Wednesday on a cautious note following a mixed session south of the border. U.S. equities dipped Tuesday after April's consumer price index came in at 3.8% — a touch above the 3.7% consensus forecast and the highest reading since May 2023 — while the core rate held at 2.8%, also above expectations. The data has effectively closed the door on any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with traders now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike by April 2027. For Canadians, the ripple effects...
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Canada's Inflation Rate Rises as GST Holiday Ends


Canada's annual inflation rate surged to 2.6% in February, up from 1.9% in January, according to Statistics Canada. This increase follows the conclusion of the federal government's two-month GST/HST holiday, which had temporarily reduced prices on various household staples, gifts, and restaurant bills. The tax break ended mid-February, contributing to a notable rise in consumer prices.

Economists had anticipated a more modest inflation increase to 2.2%, but the actual figures exceeded expectations. Without the tax holiday in place for half the month, inflation would have reached 3%, highlighting the significant impact of the temporary measure.

While gas prices saw a slight monthly increase, their annual comparison showed a deceleration, helping to moderate the overall inflation rate. However, provinces like Ontario and New Brunswick experienced the fastest price accelerations, reflecting regional variations in consumer costs.

This development comes as the Bank of Canada continues to monitor inflation trends closely, especially in the context of ongoing economic challenges. The end of the GST/HST holiday underscores the complexities of balancing temporary relief measures with long-term economic stability.

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