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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Ceasefire Chaos: Russia and Ukraine Exchange Blame Over Infrastructure Attacks

In the aftermath of a high-profile phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated further. The two nations have traded accusations of launching infrastructure attacks, despite an agreement to temporarily halt strikes on energy facilities.

The call, which aimed to establish a limited ceasefire, saw Putin agreeing to pause attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. However, the ceasefire fell short of the 30-day truce proposed by Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had initially supported the broader ceasefire but later endorsed the limited agreement.

Hours after the call, reports emerged of drone strikes and missile attacks targeting civilian and energy infrastructure in both countries. Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces launched over 40 drones, damaging hospitals and homes in regions like Sumy and Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russian authorities accused Ukraine of sabotaging the ceasefire by targeting an oil depot in the Krasnodar region.

The situation underscores the fragility of ceasefire agreements in the ongoing conflict, with both sides accusing each other of undermining peace efforts. As the international community watches closely, the path to a lasting resolution remains uncertain.

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