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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ceasefire Chaos: Russia and Ukraine Exchange Blame Over Infrastructure Attacks

In the aftermath of a high-profile phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated further. The two nations have traded accusations of launching infrastructure attacks, despite an agreement to temporarily halt strikes on energy facilities.

The call, which aimed to establish a limited ceasefire, saw Putin agreeing to pause attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. However, the ceasefire fell short of the 30-day truce proposed by Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had initially supported the broader ceasefire but later endorsed the limited agreement.

Hours after the call, reports emerged of drone strikes and missile attacks targeting civilian and energy infrastructure in both countries. Ukrainian officials claimed that Russian forces launched over 40 drones, damaging hospitals and homes in regions like Sumy and Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russian authorities accused Ukraine of sabotaging the ceasefire by targeting an oil depot in the Krasnodar region.

The situation underscores the fragility of ceasefire agreements in the ongoing conflict, with both sides accusing each other of undermining peace efforts. As the international community watches closely, the path to a lasting resolution remains uncertain.

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