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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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China's Tariffs Hit Canadian Goods: A $3.7 Billion Blow

China has implemented retaliatory tariffs on Canadian goods worth $3.7 billion, escalating trade tensions between the two nations. The new levies, effective March 20, target key Canadian exports, including rapeseed oil, peas, aquatic products, and pork. These tariffs impose a 100% surcharge on rapeseed oil and peas, while aquatic products and pork face a 25% duty.

The move follows Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products in October 2024. Beijing has criticized these measures as discriminatory and a violation of World Trade Organization rules.

Canadian industry leaders have expressed concern over the economic impact, particularly on the agricultural sector. Chris Davison, President of the Canola Council of Canada, described the tariffs as "devastating" for farmers and the broader value chain. The federal government has announced measures to support affected industries, including $1 billion in financing for the agriculture and food sectors.

This development underscores the growing strain in Canada-China trade relations, with both sides urging diplomatic engagement to resolve the dispute.

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