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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ontario to Implement 25% Energy Surcharge on U.S. Amid Trade Tensions


Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced that the province will impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States starting Monday. This move comes as a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Canadian goods, despite a 30-day pause on tariffs for certain sectors.

The surcharge will affect electricity supplied to three U.S. states—New York, Michigan, and Minnesota—impacting approximately 1.5 million homes and businesses. Premier Ford emphasized that this decision was not taken lightly but is necessary to counteract the economic strain caused by the U.S. tariffs. He also hinted at the possibility of further measures, including restricting electricity exports entirely if the tariffs persist.

The trade dispute has escalated tensions between the two nations, with Canada also implementing retaliatory tariffs on American products. Both Ford and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have expressed their commitment to defending Canadian interests while urging the U.S. to reconsider its stance.

The surcharge highlights the growing economic and political challenges in the cross-border relationship, as both sides navigate the complexities of trade and energy policies.

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