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What to Expect from the Bank of Canada on July 15 — And What It Means for Your Mortgage

  The next rate decision is just 17 days away. With inflation running hot, Canada in a technical recession, and mortgage rates on a knife's edge, here is everything you need to know before the announcement. The Short Answer: A Hold Is Almost Certain On July 15, 2026 , the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its sixth consecutive interest rate decision since October 2025 — and virtually every indicator points to another hold at 2.25% . The Bank has not moved its overnight rate since it cut to 2.25% last fall. After nine total cuts between June 2024 and October 2025, the easing cycle is effectively paused. Markets currently price the probability of a hike on July 15 at just 1%, and the chance of a cut at around the same slim odds. In other words: almost no one expects anything to change on announcement day. But a "hold" decision does not mean nothing matters. July 15 is one of four dates each year when the BoC releases a full Monetary Policy Report (MPR) alongside its rate ...
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Ontario to Implement 25% Energy Surcharge on U.S. Amid Trade Tensions


Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced that the province will impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States starting Monday. This move comes as a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Canadian goods, despite a 30-day pause on tariffs for certain sectors.

The surcharge will affect electricity supplied to three U.S. states—New York, Michigan, and Minnesota—impacting approximately 1.5 million homes and businesses. Premier Ford emphasized that this decision was not taken lightly but is necessary to counteract the economic strain caused by the U.S. tariffs. He also hinted at the possibility of further measures, including restricting electricity exports entirely if the tariffs persist.

The trade dispute has escalated tensions between the two nations, with Canada also implementing retaliatory tariffs on American products. Both Ford and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have expressed their commitment to defending Canadian interests while urging the U.S. to reconsider its stance.

The surcharge highlights the growing economic and political challenges in the cross-border relationship, as both sides navigate the complexities of trade and energy policies.

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