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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...
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Ontario to Implement 25% Energy Surcharge on U.S. Amid Trade Tensions


Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced that the province will impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States starting Monday. This move comes as a response to U.S. President Donald Trump's recent tariffs on Canadian goods, despite a 30-day pause on tariffs for certain sectors.

The surcharge will affect electricity supplied to three U.S. states—New York, Michigan, and Minnesota—impacting approximately 1.5 million homes and businesses. Premier Ford emphasized that this decision was not taken lightly but is necessary to counteract the economic strain caused by the U.S. tariffs. He also hinted at the possibility of further measures, including restricting electricity exports entirely if the tariffs persist.

The trade dispute has escalated tensions between the two nations, with Canada also implementing retaliatory tariffs on American products. Both Ford and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have expressed their commitment to defending Canadian interests while urging the U.S. to reconsider its stance.

The surcharge highlights the growing economic and political challenges in the cross-border relationship, as both sides navigate the complexities of trade and energy policies.

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