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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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Ontario's Electricity Surcharge Sparks U.S. Backlash

Ontario's recent decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States has ignited tensions across the border. Premier Doug Ford announced the measure as a retaliatory response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. The surcharge, effective immediately, impacts approximately 1.5 million homes and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York, potentially adding $100 to monthly electricity bills for affected consumers.

Ford defended the move, emphasizing its necessity to protect Ontario's interests amidst escalating trade disputes. He warned that further measures, including a complete halt to electricity exports, could follow if U.S. tariffs persist. While the surcharge is expected to generate significant daily revenue for Ontario, critics argue it could strain cross-border relations and disrupt energy markets.

U.S. governors have expressed concerns over the surcharge's impact on pricing and reliability, with some warning of potential reciprocal actions. As the trade standoff continues, the surcharge underscores the growing economic and political complexities in U.S.-Canada relations.

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