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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Ontario's Electricity Surcharge Sparks U.S. Backlash

Ontario's recent decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States has ignited tensions across the border. Premier Doug Ford announced the measure as a retaliatory response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. The surcharge, effective immediately, impacts approximately 1.5 million homes and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York, potentially adding $100 to monthly electricity bills for affected consumers.

Ford defended the move, emphasizing its necessity to protect Ontario's interests amidst escalating trade disputes. He warned that further measures, including a complete halt to electricity exports, could follow if U.S. tariffs persist. While the surcharge is expected to generate significant daily revenue for Ontario, critics argue it could strain cross-border relations and disrupt energy markets.

U.S. governors have expressed concerns over the surcharge's impact on pricing and reliability, with some warning of potential reciprocal actions. As the trade standoff continues, the surcharge underscores the growing economic and political complexities in U.S.-Canada relations.

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