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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Decision Looms, TSX Sits Near Record Highs

  Saturday, July 11, 2026 Here's what Canadians need to know heading into the week, as markets brace for the Bank of Canada's rate decision and the CUSMA trade file keeps grinding along. 1. The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and a hold is all but locked in The Bank of Canada's next rate announcement lands July 15, and virtually every economist on Bay Street expects the overnight rate to stay parked at 2.25% — what would be a sixth straight pause. A stronger-than-expected June jobs report has taken away any urgency to cut, while cooling inflation and lingering trade uncertainty argue against a hike. Expect the accompanying statement to lean on familiar language: steady as she goes. 2. June's jobs report beat expectations, and the jobless rate ticked down Statistics Canada reported employers added roughly 18,000 jobs in June, ahead of forecasts and building on May's much larger 88,000-job gain. The unemployment rate slipped to 6.5%, back to where it stood in Januar...
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Ontario's Electricity Surcharge Sparks U.S. Backlash

Ontario's recent decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States has ignited tensions across the border. Premier Doug Ford announced the measure as a retaliatory response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. The surcharge, effective immediately, impacts approximately 1.5 million homes and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York, potentially adding $100 to monthly electricity bills for affected consumers.

Ford defended the move, emphasizing its necessity to protect Ontario's interests amidst escalating trade disputes. He warned that further measures, including a complete halt to electricity exports, could follow if U.S. tariffs persist. While the surcharge is expected to generate significant daily revenue for Ontario, critics argue it could strain cross-border relations and disrupt energy markets.

U.S. governors have expressed concerns over the surcharge's impact on pricing and reliability, with some warning of potential reciprocal actions. As the trade standoff continues, the surcharge underscores the growing economic and political complexities in U.S.-Canada relations.

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