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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Regulatory Warnings Ignored: Canadian Arm of China's Largest Bank Faces Scrutiny

The Canadian subsidiary of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the world's largest bank, has come under fire for repeatedly violating anti-money laundering regulations. Despite multiple warnings from Canada's financial intelligence unit, FINTRAC, the bank failed to address critical compliance issues. These included neglecting to file suspicious transaction reports and not treating high-risk activities with the required level of scrutiny.

A routine audit in 2019 revealed several administrative violations, leading to a fine of $701,250 issued in 2021. The violations highlight systemic lapses in the bank's financial crime compliance controls, raising concerns about its commitment to combating money laundering and terrorist financing.

The case underscores the importance of robust regulatory oversight and the need for financial institutions to prioritize compliance to maintain the integrity of the financial system.

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