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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Regulatory Warnings Ignored: Canadian Arm of China's Largest Bank Faces Scrutiny

The Canadian subsidiary of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the world's largest bank, has come under fire for repeatedly violating anti-money laundering regulations. Despite multiple warnings from Canada's financial intelligence unit, FINTRAC, the bank failed to address critical compliance issues. These included neglecting to file suspicious transaction reports and not treating high-risk activities with the required level of scrutiny.

A routine audit in 2019 revealed several administrative violations, leading to a fine of $701,250 issued in 2021. The violations highlight systemic lapses in the bank's financial crime compliance controls, raising concerns about its commitment to combating money laundering and terrorist financing.

The case underscores the importance of robust regulatory oversight and the need for financial institutions to prioritize compliance to maintain the integrity of the financial system.

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