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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Russia's Conditions for US Talks on Ukraine: A Path to Diplomacy?

 

Russia has recently outlined its demands for potential negotiations with the United States regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to sources, Moscow has presented a list of conditions aimed at ending the war and resetting relations with Washington. These demands include barring Ukraine from NATO membership, prohibiting the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, and recognizing Russia's claims over Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces.

The discussions between Russian and American officials reportedly took place over the past three weeks, both in-person and virtually. While the exact details of the demands remain unclear, they are said to align with Russia's long-standing positions on NATO's eastward expansion and the "root causes" of the conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed openness to a 30-day ceasefire as a preliminary step toward broader peace talks. However, concerns persist among U.S. officials and experts that Russia might use such a truce to further its strategic objectives.

The situation remains fluid, with both sides exploring the possibility of diplomacy while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. Whether these talks will lead to a resolution or further entrench existing divisions remains to be seen.

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