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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Russia's Conditions for US Talks on Ukraine: A Path to Diplomacy?

 

Russia has recently outlined its demands for potential negotiations with the United States regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. According to sources, Moscow has presented a list of conditions aimed at ending the war and resetting relations with Washington. These demands include barring Ukraine from NATO membership, prohibiting the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine, and recognizing Russia's claims over Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces.

The discussions between Russian and American officials reportedly took place over the past three weeks, both in-person and virtually. While the exact details of the demands remain unclear, they are said to align with Russia's long-standing positions on NATO's eastward expansion and the "root causes" of the conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed openness to a 30-day ceasefire as a preliminary step toward broader peace talks. However, concerns persist among U.S. officials and experts that Russia might use such a truce to further its strategic objectives.

The situation remains fluid, with both sides exploring the possibility of diplomacy while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. Whether these talks will lead to a resolution or further entrench existing divisions remains to be seen.

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