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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Tensions Escalate in Gaza Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty

 

In a tragic turn of events, Israeli fire has claimed the lives of at least two individuals in Gaza, further intensifying fears that the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could collapse. The incident occurred in Rafah, with additional injuries reported in Khan Younis, located in the southern region of Gaza.

The ceasefire, which began in January, recently reached a critical juncture as its first phase concluded without a clear agreement on the next steps. Hamas has called for the initiation of a second phase, which would involve a permanent Israeli withdrawal and an end to the ongoing conflict. However, Israel has proposed a temporary extension of the truce, contingent on the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian detainees.

Adding to the tension, Israel has imposed a total blockade on Gaza, halting the supply of essential goods such as food and fuel. This has left the 2.3 million residents of Gaza in dire straits, with skyrocketing prices and dwindling resources. The blockade has also led to heightened fears of renewed violence, as Israeli tanks and artillery have intensified their presence along Gaza's borders.

The international community is closely monitoring the situation, with mediators urging both sides to find a resolution. However, the path forward remains uncertain, as both Israel and Hamas hold firm to their respective demands.

This latest escalation underscores the precarious nature of the ceasefire and the urgent need for a sustainable solution to the long-standing conflict.

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