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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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The stock market experienced a downturn today as futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite slipped. This decline follows a brief rally fueled by the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady. While the Fed's move initially reassured investors, concerns about inflation and slower economic growth have resurfaced, dampening market sentiment.

Futures linked to the Dow fell by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dropped by 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively. The Federal Reserve's updated projections, which indicate higher inflation and reduced economic growth, have raised doubts about the path to potential rate cuts later this year. These broader economic concerns have weighed heavily on investor confidence.


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