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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump Implements 25% Tariff on Steel and Aluminum Imports

 

In a significant move, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, effective immediately. This decision follows a day of intense trade negotiations and threats to raise the tariff to 50%. The tariff aims to protect American industries but has sparked concerns about potential economic repercussions and strained relations with key trading partners, including Canada.

The announcement came after Ontario Premier Doug Ford agreed to suspend a proposed tax on electricity exports to the U.S., which had escalated tensions. Both sides are set to engage in further discussions to address trade disputes and explore revisions to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The tariffs are expected to impact global trade dynamics, with Canada and other affected nations preparing to respond. Critics argue that such measures could lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, while supporters believe they will bolster domestic manufacturing.

This development underscores the complexities of international trade and the challenges of balancing national interests with global economic stability.

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