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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Trump's Remarks Stir Political Debate in Canada


In a recent interview with Fox News, U.S. President Donald Trump made waves by stating that he would prefer dealing with a Liberal government in Canada over a Conservative one. Trump described Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as "stupidly, no friend of mine," citing negative comments Poilievre has made about him. Trump added that he finds it "easier to deal with a Liberal" and expressed indifference about the outcome of Canada's upcoming federal election.

Poilievre responded to Trump's remarks during a press conference in Sudbury, Ontario, emphasizing his strong leadership and commitment to putting Canada first. He criticized the Liberals, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, for policies he claims have weakened Canada and driven investment south of the border. Poilievre framed Trump's comments as an endorsement of Carney, suggesting that Trump prefers a weaker Canada under Liberal leadership.

The exchange has sparked significant political discourse, with both parties using Trump's comments to bolster their narratives ahead of the election. The Liberal Party has seen a rise in polls since Carney assumed leadership, while Poilievre continues to position himself as a tough negotiator capable of standing up to Trump.

The remarks highlight the complex dynamics of U.S.-Canada relations and their influence on Canadian politics.

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