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5 Things to Know Today: Canada Enters Recession, Oil Slips on Iran Ceasefire Talk

Saturday, May 30, 2026 — Your quick-hit Canadian financial briefing for the day. 1.Canada Officially Meets the Definition of a Technical Recession Statistics Canada confirmed Friday that real GDP contracted 0.1% on an annualized basis in Q1 2026 — following a revised 1.0% drop in Q4 2025 . That's two straight quarters of negative growth, which meets the technical definition of a recession. The miss was a big one: economists had forecast growth of 1.5% . The main culprits were a surge in imports (up 2.9%, largely gold), declining business capital investment (down 0.7% — its fifth consecutive quarterly drop ), and weakness in resource extraction and construction. On a per-capita basis, GDP actually edged up 0.2% as Canada's population shrank for the second quarter in a row. Not everyone is ready to call it a full recession: some economists note that three of the four weak months were isolated, and early April data points to a sharp 0.4% rebound . Still, the numbers ...
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Trump's Tariff Tango: A Chaotic Dance of Trade Policies

The Trump administration's tariff plans have left many scratching their heads. With a schedule that seems to shift as often as the wind, businesses and governments alike are struggling to keep up. The latest development involves a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, set to take effect on March 4. This move, according to President Trump, is aimed at combating the flow of fentanyl into the United States, despite evidence suggesting that Canada is not a significant source of the drug.

Adding to the confusion, Trump has also announced reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, scheduled for April 2. These overlapping deadlines and mixed messages have created uncertainty in international trade, a hallmark of Trump's policy approach.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has vowed to retaliate with tariffs on American goods if these measures proceed. Meanwhile, businesses on both sides of the border are bracing for economic turbulence.

The ever-changing nature of these tariffs underscores the unpredictability of the current trade landscape. As deadlines loom, the world watches to see how this high-stakes game of economic brinkmanship will unfold.

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