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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Wall Street Stumbles Amid Inflation and Tariff Concerns

                                        

Wall Street faced a sharp downturn as fresh U.S. economic data reignited fears of inflation and tariff impacts. The S&P 500 dropped 1.97%, closing at 5,580.94 points, while the Nasdaq fell 2.70% to 17,322.99 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.69% to 41,583.90 points.

The latest data revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in February, coupled with a significant rise in underlying prices—the highest in 13 months. Additionally, a University of Michigan survey highlighted soaring inflation expectations, reaching their highest levels in over two years.

These developments, combined with escalating tariff measures from the Trump administration, have heightened concerns about the economic outlook. Major tech stocks, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, saw significant losses, reflecting broader market unease.

Market analysts warn that the inflationary effects of tariffs may intensify in the coming months, further complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. As uncertainty looms, businesses and investors are adopting a cautious stance, bracing for potential economic turbulence.

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