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Carney Tempers Expectations on U.S.-Canada Trade Talks

                                             Carney says U.S. tariff reprieve 'unlikely' to happen before CUSMA review talks. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has downplayed the likelihood of a near-term trade deal between Canada and the United States, signaling that any progress will likely be folded into the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) scheduled for 2026. Speaking at a press conference in Ottawa, Carney explained that efforts to secure sector-specific agreements—particularly in industries such as steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber—have stalled since U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly ended negotiations in October. The talks were derailed after Ontario aired a controversial anti-tariff advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan, which drew sharp criticism from Washington. Carney emphasized that while Canada...
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Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision Hangs in the Balance Amid Trade Turmoil and Election Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada is facing a tough call on its latest interest rate decision, with market expectations nearly split between a rate cut and a pause. The central bank has already made seven consecutive cuts since June 2024, bringing its policy rate to 2.75%. However, ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming federal election have complicated the outlook.

Recent inflation data showed a slowdown, with March’s annual inflation rate cooling to 2.3%. This has given policymakers more room to consider another rate cut, but concerns remain about the broader economic impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian businesses and consumers. Some economists argue that a cut is necessary to cushion the economy, while others warn that holding steady might be the safer move.

Governor Tiff Macklem has acknowledged the “pervasive uncertainty” created by shifting trade policies, stating that multiple economic outcomes remain plausible. With consumer confidence shaken and the housing market struggling, the Bank’s decision today could have significant ripple effects across the economy.

Will the Bank of Canada opt for another cut, or will it hold firm in the face of uncertainty? The answer will shape Canada’s economic trajectory in the months ahead.

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