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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Canada Dodges Major Impact in Trump's Tariff Storm

In a sweeping move, U.S. President Donald Trump announced retaliatory tariffs targeting imports from dozens of countries. While Canada wasn't entirely spared, it avoided the harshest measures. The new tariffs include a 25% levy on foreign-made automobiles, which could have significant implications for Canada's auto industry. However, Canada is exempt from the baseline 10% tariff applied to other nations.

Trump's administration claims these tariffs aim to bolster domestic manufacturing, but critics warn of potential economic fallout, including higher consumer prices and strained international relations. Canada, already facing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and energy, remains cautious as bilateral tensions continue to rise.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has vowed to address these challenges, emphasizing the importance of preserving Canada's economic stability amid shifting trade dynamics. The situation underscores the delicate balance between maintaining trade partnerships and navigating protectionist policies.

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