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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Canada’s Inflation Eases to 2.3% in March, but Core Pressures Persist

Canada’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 2.3% in March down from 2.6% in February, according to Statistics Canada. The decline was largely driven by lower gasoline and travel costs, which helped offset rising prices in other sectors.  

Despite the overall slowdown, core inflation measures remained elevated, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. The CPI-median, which tracks the central trend of price changes, held steady at 2.9%, while the CPI-trim, which excludes extreme price fluctuations, edged down slightly to 2.8%.  

The inflation report comes just ahead of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts are closely watching whether the central bank will adjust interest rates in response to the latest data.  



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