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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Canada’s Inflation Eases to 2.3% in March, but Core Pressures Persist

Canada’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 2.3% in March down from 2.6% in February, according to Statistics Canada. The decline was largely driven by lower gasoline and travel costs, which helped offset rising prices in other sectors.  

Despite the overall slowdown, core inflation measures remained elevated, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. The CPI-median, which tracks the central trend of price changes, held steady at 2.9%, while the CPI-trim, which excludes extreme price fluctuations, edged down slightly to 2.8%.  

The inflation report comes just ahead of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Analysts are closely watching whether the central bank will adjust interest rates in response to the latest data.  



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