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Markets Digest Iran Peace Progress and Fed Rate-Hike Risk — June 22, 2026

  Markets are easing into a cautious start this Monday as investors return from a long weekend — U.S. markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — and assess a mixed backdrop: tentative optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, a newly hawkish Federal Reserve, and a key week of economic data and earnings ahead. Oil is steadying, the Canadian dollar is under modest pressure, and Asian markets rallied while European and U.S. futures drifted slightly lower in early trading. 🍁 Canada — TSX & the Loonie The S&P/TSX Composite Index heads into Monday trading with a cautious tone, sitting near the 34,857 level after slipping 0.32% on Thursday — the last day Canadian markets were open. Energy stocks will be in focus as oil prices stabilize following weeks of volatility tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Canadian dollar is trading at approximately 70.52 cents U.S. (CAD/USD: 0.7052), down about 0.22% on the session. The loonie remains und...
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EU's Balancing Act: Negotiations vs. Tariffs in Trade Dispute with US

The European Union (EU) has taken a significant step in addressing trade tensions with the United States. While emphasizing its preference for negotiations, the EU has proposed its first retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. This move comes in response to the U.S. imposing steep tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods, which the EU views as unjustified and damaging.

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has expressed hope for a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement, aiming to eliminate tariffs on industrial goods. However, the EU is prepared to implement countermeasures if negotiations fail to yield results. The bloc plans to impose targeted tariffs on U.S. imports, with some taking effect as early as April 15.

Despite the EU's readiness to retaliate, many member states have urged caution, highlighting the potential economic impact of escalating trade disputes. The EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, which could target U.S. services or limit American companies' access to EU public procurement, remains a contentious option.

This delicate balancing act reflects the EU's commitment to protecting its single market while seeking a diplomatic resolution to the trade conflict.

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