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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...
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Global Markets Reel as China Responds to U.S. Tariffs

 


Global financial markets faced a sharp downturn as China announced retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping trade measures. The Chinese government imposed a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, mirroring the rate of the U.S. tariffs introduced earlier this week. This move has intensified fears of a global trade war, sending shockwaves through stock markets worldwide.

Major indices, including the S&P/TSX in Canada, experienced significant losses, with futures dropping by 2.7% early Friday. Asian and European markets also saw steep declines, while U.S. stock futures pointed to further losses on Wall Street. The tariffs have raised concerns about a potential global recession, as industries and economies brace for the impact of escalating trade tensions.

Commodities were not spared, with oil prices hitting their lowest levels since the pandemic, and gold—a traditional safe haven—experiencing fluctuations. Economists warn that the ongoing trade conflict could lead to a contraction in global trade volumes, further straining economic growth.

The situation remains fluid, with investors and policymakers closely monitoring developments. The global economy now faces a critical juncture as the repercussions of these tariffs unfold.

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