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5 Things to Know Today: Fed Decision, New Tariffs and $107 Oil

  September 15, 2026 Here's what's moving markets and your wallet today — from tomorrow's Fed decision to a fresh round of U.S. tariffs that took effect this morning. 1. The Fed decides tomorrow — and markets say a hike is likely The U.S. Federal Reserve hands down its rate decision Wednesday, and prediction markets have swung hard toward a hike. Polymarket now prices an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point increase, up from roughly 50/50 odds just a few weeks ago, while CME FedWatch and other trackers put the odds in the high-80s to low-90s. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a consistently hawkish tone since his Jackson Hole speech, and hot August inflation and payroll data have reinforced the case for tightening. What it means for you: A U.S. hike doesn't move the Bank of Canada's rate directly, but it widens the gap with Canada's 2.25% policy rate, which tends to pressure the loonie lower and adds to the case some Canadian economists are already making for a BoC hi...
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Senate Republicans Advance Trump's Tax Cut Agenda Amidst Controversy


In a significant political move, U.S. Senate Republicans have passed a budget blueprint aimed at extending President Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts. The measure, approved after an intense late-night session, allows Republicans to bypass the Senate's filibuster and proceed with tax, border security, and military priorities without Democratic support.

The blueprint proposes making the 2017 tax cuts permanent, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. However, the individual tax cuts, set to expire this year, are also included in the plan. Critics argue that the measure could add $5.7 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade, though Republicans estimate the cost at $1.5 trillion.

Democrats have voiced strong opposition, warning that the plan could jeopardize Medicaid and other essential programs. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer criticized the move as favoring the wealthy at the expense of middle-class Americans.

The measure now heads to the Republican-led House of Representatives for further debate. Its passage marks a pivotal step in advancing Trump's economic agenda, though it faces significant scrutiny and potential hurdles in the coming weeks.

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