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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Trump Eases Global Tariffs but Maintains Stance on Canada



In a surprising move, U.S. President Donald Trump has partially reversed his aggressive tariff policies, pausing the highest levies on several nations for 90 days. However, Canada remains excluded from this reprieve. The baseline 10% tariff on imports to the U.S. persists, alongside specific duties on Canadian goods, including automobiles and energy products.

Trump's decision follows mounting pressure from over 75 countries seeking negotiations to mitigate the economic chaos caused by his "reciprocal" tariff regime. While some nations saw relief, Trump doubled down on tariffs for China, raising them to a staggering 125%.

Canada, meanwhile, has responded with retaliatory measures, including tariffs on U.S. vehicles and other goods. The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of Trump's global trade strategy and its ripple effects on international markets.

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