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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Trump Eases Global Tariffs but Maintains Stance on Canada



In a surprising move, U.S. President Donald Trump has partially reversed his aggressive tariff policies, pausing the highest levies on several nations for 90 days. However, Canada remains excluded from this reprieve. The baseline 10% tariff on imports to the U.S. persists, alongside specific duties on Canadian goods, including automobiles and energy products.

Trump's decision follows mounting pressure from over 75 countries seeking negotiations to mitigate the economic chaos caused by his "reciprocal" tariff regime. While some nations saw relief, Trump doubled down on tariffs for China, raising them to a staggering 125%.

Canada, meanwhile, has responded with retaliatory measures, including tariffs on U.S. vehicles and other goods. The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of Trump's global trade strategy and its ripple effects on international markets.

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