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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Trump's Affection for Royals: A Potential Lifeline for UK Trade

In a recent interview, U.S. Vice President JD Vance hinted at a promising trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom, attributing the potential breakthrough to President Donald Trump's admiration for the British royal family. Vance emphasized the cultural and historical ties between the two nations, suggesting that Trump's fondness for the monarchy could play a pivotal role in easing trade tensions.

The United States has imposed sweeping tariffs on imports, with British goods facing a 10% charge and steel and car exports enduring a 25% rate. Despite these challenges, Vance expressed optimism about reaching a mutually beneficial agreement, citing the balanced trade relationship between the two countries. He also highlighted the reciprocal nature of U.S.-UK trade, contrasting it with the more restrictive policies of other European nations.

As negotiations continue, the cultural affinity and shared values between the U.S. and UK may prove to be a unique advantage in navigating global trade tensions. Vance's comments underscore the importance of diplomacy and personal connections in shaping international relations. 



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