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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Trump's Tariff Shake-Up: Global Trade Faces New Challenges


On April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping 10% tariffs on imports from all trading partners, marking a significant escalation in global trade tensions. These tariffs, described as "baseline," aim to address what Trump perceives as unfair trade practices and chronic trade deficits. While the announcement has sent ripples across international markets, the specific impact on Canada remains uncertain.

Canada, a close trading partner of the U.S., has previously faced tariffs on steel, aluminum, and energy imports under Trump's administration. The new measures could further strain bilateral relations and affect key Canadian industries. Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly preparing Canada's response, as the trade war becomes a central issue in the upcoming federal election.

Trump's move has sparked debates among economists and policymakers, with critics warning of potential economic fallout and supporters praising the tariffs as a step toward "economic independence". As the global trade landscape shifts, countries are bracing for the ripple effects of this bold policy change. 


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