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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ukraine Stands Firm Against Crimea Surrender Amid US Peace Proposal

 

A recent peace proposal from the Trump administration has sparked outrage among Ukrainian officials. The plan, which includes recognizing Russian authority over Crimea, has been met with firm resistance. Ukrainian lawmakers and the public have declared that formally surrendering Crimea is politically and legally impossible, as it would require constitutional changes and a nationwide vote. Many view such a move as treason and a betrayal of the sacrifices made by Ukrainian service members.

While some acknowledge that temporary territorial concessions might be necessary for peace, the idea of permanently relinquishing Crimea remains a red line for Ukraine. President Zelenskyy has reiterated that Crimea will never be recognized as part of Russia, despite mounting pressure from the U.S. and ongoing conflict with Russian forces.

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