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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Odds, Fixed Rates, Tariff Swap, $100 Oil & Budget Countdown (Oct. 25)

  Canadian Money Brief • Sunday, October 25, 2026 A big week for your wallet starts Wednesday. Here are the five things Canadians should know before it begins. 1 The Bank of Canada decides Wednesday, and markets lean toward a hike The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 28, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. Prediction markets price roughly a 79% chance of a quarter-point hike to 2.50%, up sharply after Governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments at the IMF meetings, though analysts remain split and some expect a “hawkish hold.” The U.S. Fed also decides that day. What it means for you: Variable-rate mortgage and HELOC holders feel it first. A 0.25-point hike works out to roughly $70 more per month on a $500,000 variable mortgage (25-year amortization), and prime would move from 4.45% to 4.70%. A hold means little change until the next decision on Dec. 9. 2 Fixed mortgage rates have already moved without the Bank Fixed rates follow bond ...
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Carney Sets the Course: PM Outlines Government Priorities in First Post-Election Address

 

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to unveil his government's priorities in a highly anticipated news conference today, marking his first public address since securing a fourth mandate for the Liberal Party. 

Carney, who has remained largely behind closed doors since election night, is expected to focus on key domestic and international issues, including trade relations with the United States. His office confirmed that he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week, with discussions centered on easing ongoing trade tensions. While Trump has indicated a meeting in Washington could happen within days, Carney's team has yet to confirm the timeline. 

Beyond trade, Carney has spent the past few days engaging with global leaders, including King Charles, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European Council President Antonio Costa. His diplomatic outreach signals a broader effort to reposition Canada on the world stage, particularly in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics. 

Domestically, Carney faces the challenge of governing with a minority government, as the Liberals secured 168 seats—one fewer than initially reported—following a validation process by Elections Canada. The Conservatives hold 144 seats, while the Bloc Québécois, NDP, and Green Party make up the remainder of the House. 

As Carney steps into the spotlight today, Canadians will be watching closely to see how he plans to navigate the political landscape and deliver on his campaign promises. His remarks are scheduled for 11 a.m. EDT, where he will take questions from the media. 



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