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The Rate Cuts Are Over — Is a Hike Coming?

  July 23, 2026 Oil shocks, sticky inflation and a technical recession are pulling the Bank of Canada in opposite directions at once. For most of the past two years, the only question about the Bank of Canada was how far and how fast it would cut. The overnight rate fell from 5.00% to 2.25% between June 2024 and October 2025, one of the sharpest easing cycles in the Bank's history, and it has held there through six consecutive decisions since. That story is now over. The question on the table for the rest of 2026 isn't whether the Bank cuts again — it's whether the next move is actually a hike. Two conflicting signals, one Bank The case for staying put — or even cutting — comes from the growth side of the ledger. Statistics Canada data showed the economy contracted in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, meeting the informal definition of a technical recession. That was enough to have some economists warning the Bank had no room to raise rates at a...
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Poilievre Declines Severance After Election Defeat, Signaling Fiscal Responsibility

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has declined the severance package offered to defeated Members of Parliament following his unexpected loss in the Ontario riding of Carleton. Poilievre, who had held the seat for two decades, was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy in a closely contested race.  

Despite the setback, Poilievre remains committed to his principles of fiscal responsibility, rejecting the severance that MPs typically receive upon losing their seats. His decision aligns with his long-standing stance on government spending and accountability.  

Poilievre’s loss has sparked discussions about his future in the Conservative Party, with some members rallying behind him while others question his leadership moving forward. However, his rejection of severance sends a clear message about his commitment to financial prudence, a key pillar of his political ideology.  

As the political landscape shifts, Poilievre’s next steps will be closely watched, particularly as the Conservative Party navigates its path forward in the wake of the election results.

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