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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Poilievre Declines Severance After Election Defeat, Signaling Fiscal Responsibility

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has declined the severance package offered to defeated Members of Parliament following his unexpected loss in the Ontario riding of Carleton. Poilievre, who had held the seat for two decades, was defeated by Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy in a closely contested race.  

Despite the setback, Poilievre remains committed to his principles of fiscal responsibility, rejecting the severance that MPs typically receive upon losing their seats. His decision aligns with his long-standing stance on government spending and accountability.  

Poilievre’s loss has sparked discussions about his future in the Conservative Party, with some members rallying behind him while others question his leadership moving forward. However, his rejection of severance sends a clear message about his commitment to financial prudence, a key pillar of his political ideology.  

As the political landscape shifts, Poilievre’s next steps will be closely watched, particularly as the Conservative Party navigates its path forward in the wake of the election results.

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