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5 Things to Know Today: U.S. Alcohol Ban, GDP Day, 5.25% Yields (Sept 29)

  Tuesday September 29, 2026 A U.S. import ban on Canadian booze kicks in, Statistics Canada reports July GDP, and U.S. bond yields sit at levels not seen since 2007. Here are the five things that matter for your wallet today. 1 The U.S. ban on Canadian alcohol takes effect today As of 12:01 a.m. ET, the U.S. is refusing entry to many Canadian beer, wine, cider and spirits shipments, along with whey products, molasses and larger motorcycles. The measures were signed Sept. 8 and largely replace the 50% tariffs that applied to these goods. Bottles already in the U.S. can still be sold, and product shipped in bulk to be bottled south of the border appears to fall outside the ban. Canadian producers say pivoting to domestic sales won't be easy, because a patchwork of provincial rules complicates selling across borders. What it means for you: The ban hits exports, not what you pay at the store. The exposure is for people who work in or own shares of brewers, distillers and wineries, a...
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Are rate hikes over for Canada


The Canadian economy is expected to show a modest growth of 0.4% in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Canada. This is lower than the 0.6% expansion in the previous quarter, and well below the 2.1% growth rate that the Bank of Canada projected in July.

The weak GDP numbers have fueled the speculation that the country may be heading into a recession, as global trade tensions, lower oil prices, and household debt weigh on the economic outlook. 

However, not everyone is convinced that the situation is so dire. Some forecasters argue that the third quarter slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors, such as a strike at a major auto plant, a drop in agricultural output due to drought, and a slowdown in housing construction. They expect that the economy will rebound in the fourth quarter, as these factors dissipate and consumer spending picks up.

Moreover, some forecasters point out that the inflation rate remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, suggesting that there is no need for further monetary stimulus. They also note that the labour market remains strong, with the unemployment rate at a near-record low of 5.5%, and wage growth at a solid 3.2%.

Therefore, some forecasters believe that the Bank of Canada will maintain its wait-and-see approach, and keep interest rates unchanged until there are clear signs of either a sustained recovery or a prolonged downturn. They argue that the central bank has already done enough to support the economy, by cutting interest rates three times in 2022, and that any further easing could fuel financial imbalances and inflationary pressures.

In summary, the GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2023 are likely to spark more debate about the state of the Canadian economy and the direction of monetary policy. However, some forecasters are more optimistic than others, and think that the rate hikes are over for now, unless there is a significant change in the economic conditions.

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