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Carney’s First Budget Signals a Generational Reset for Canada’s Finances

Prime Minister Mark Carney jokes with Minister of Finance and National Revenue Francois-Philippe Champagne as they greet families before participating in an announcement at a community centre in Ottawa, on Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s inaugural budget is being framed as a turning point in Canada’s fiscal direction, marking a sharp departure from the spending patterns of recent years . Presented alongside Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, the budget is not just a financial document but a statement of intent: to reshape the country’s economic priorities in the face of global uncertainty and domestic pressures. At the heart of the plan is a shift away from expansive spending toward what Carney has described as “tough choices” and “sacrifices.” The government has emphasized that Canada must “spend less to invest more” , signaling a reallocation of resources rather than an outright expansion of the deficit. This approach reflects Carney’s long-standing...
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Canada’s Economy Surges: Q4 Growth Exceeds Expectations By Copilot

 

In a welcome turn of events, Canada’s economy demonstrated resilience by surpassing expectations in the fourth quarter of 2023. Here are the key highlights:

Fourth-Quarter Growth

  • Annualized Rate: The Canadian economy expanded at an impressive annualized rate of 1.0% during Q4. This growth rate exceeded both the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) conservative 0.0% forecast and the 0.8% growth rate anticipated by analysts in a Reuters poll.

  • Exports Fuel Growth: The surge in quarterly growth was primarily driven by a rise in exports, even as imports declined. This positive momentum reflects the country’s ability to navigate global challenges.

  • Business Investment Moderates: While exports played a pivotal role, a decline in business investment acted as a moderating factor. Balancing these dynamics is crucial for sustained economic progress.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

  • Central Bank’s Dilemma: The Bank of Canada faces a delicate balancing act. With inflation still running above its 2% target at 2.9%, the central bank must carefully consider its next moves.

  • Interest Rates: The BoC’s focus has shifted from rate hikes to potential rate cuts. The current policy rate stands at a 22-year high of 5%. The bank’s next announcement is scheduled for March 6, where it is expected to maintain rates.

  • Market Expectations: Money markets predict a rate cut in June, with bets fully priced in for a 25 basis point cut in July. Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators for clues on the central bank’s future actions.

January’s Momentum

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) likely grew by 0.4% in January, according to Statistics Canada data. Sectors such as educational services and health care contributed positively, while mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction faced headwinds.

As Canada continues its economic journey, policymakers, businesses, and investors remain vigilant. The robust Q4 performance provides hope for sustained growth, but challenges persist. 

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