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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Toronto Transit Workers Face Friday Strike Deadline

 

Toronto transit workers are on the brink of a strike unless negotiations see significant changes on key contract issues. The looming deadline, set for Friday just past midnight, could trigger the first TTC strike since 2008.

Core Issues and Impasse

ATU Local 113 president Marvin Alfred stated that negotiations have reached an “impasse.” The union’s nearly 12,000 members are moving toward a strike unless core issues—such as wages, benefits, and job security—are addressed. The union seeks protections against outsourcing jobs to third parties and cross-boundary service transfers to other Greater Toronto Area transit operators.

Optimism and Challenges

TTC spokesperson Stuart Green remains optimistic that a deal can be worked out before the deadline. Negotiations are likely to go down to the wire, balancing the challenging work of union members with affordability for the City of Toronto. TTC chair Jamaal Myers echoes this optimism, emphasizing the need for contingency plans.

Impact on Commuters

A strike could disrupt travel plans for tens of thousands of commuters who rely on TTC subways, streetcars, and buses. While both sides continue bargaining, it’s essential for commuters to have a backup plan in place.



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