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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...

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Central Banks Shift Gears: Rate Cuts on the Rise

 

In a significant shift in monetary policy, seven out of the ten major developed-market central banks have begun easing their interest rates. This move marks a notable departure from the previous trend of rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation.

Current Landscape

The central banks of the United States, Eurozone, Japan, and others have started to lower their rates, responding to a mix of slowing economic growth and easing inflation pressures. This trend underscores a growing consensus among policymakers that the global economy needs support to sustain growth.

Data Dependency

Policymakers are emphasizing a data-dependent approach, meaning future rate cuts will be closely tied to economic indicators. This cautious stance reflects the uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook and the need to balance growth with inflation control.

Market Reactions

Financial markets have reacted positively to these rate cuts, with stock markets rallying and bond yields falling. Investors are optimistic that lower borrowing costs will stimulate economic activity and support corporate earnings.

Looking Ahead

As central banks navigate this new phase, the pace and extent of future rate cuts will be critical. Economists and traders will be watching closely for signals from policymakers about their next moves, making economic data releases more influential than ever.


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