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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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Canada Adds Fewer Jobs Than Expected in October; Unemployment Rate Holds Steady

 

Canada’s job market showed signs of slowing down in October, as the country added fewer jobs than anticipated. According to Statistics Canada, the national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%.

The economy saw a modest increase of 15,000 jobs last month, falling short of economists’ expectations. This modest gain reflects ongoing challenges in the labor market, influenced by high interest rates and economic uncertainties.

Despite the job additions, the unemployment rate held steady, indicating that the labor market is still grappling with balancing job creation and economic pressures. The Bank of Canada has been closely monitoring these trends, especially as it aims to foster economic growth following recent interest rate cuts.

As the country navigates these economic conditions, the focus remains on creating sustainable employment opportunities and supporting workforce stability.


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