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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Canada's Unemployment Rate Hits 6.8% in November: Highest Since January 2017

Canada's unemployment rate surged to 6.8% in November, reaching its highest level since January 2017, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. This increase comes despite the addition of 51,000 jobs during the month.

Statistics Canada's November labour force survey revealed that the rise in unemployment was driven by a growing number of people entering the job market, which outpaced job creation. The labour force participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points.

Economists are closely watching these developments as the Bank of Canada prepares for its upcoming interest rate decision. With high interest rates cooling the labour market over the past year, many unemployed Canadians have faced longer periods without work.

The report also highlighted that 46.3% of unemployed Canadians in November had not worked in the last year or had never worked, up from 39.5% a year ago. Meanwhile, average hourly wages were up 4.1% from a year ago, marking a slowdown in annual wage growth.

As the country grapples with these economic challenges, the Bank of Canada's decision on interest rates will be crucial in shaping the future of the job market.



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