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June Jobs Report: What It Means for the Bank of Canada's July 15 Decision

  Friday, July 10, 2026 Statistics Canada releases its June Labour Force Survey today, and the timing couldn't matter more. This is the last major economic data point before the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on July 15, 2026 — and whichever way the jobs numbers break, they'll shape what happens to borrowing costs for the rest of the summer. What Economists Are Expecting Consensus forecasts point to a modest but positive jobs report. Economists expect Canada added around 10,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.6%. That would follow a much stronger May, when the economy added 88,000 jobs and the unemployment rate actually fell by 0.3 percentage points. In other words, June's report is expected to show a cooling-off after May's surprise strength — not a reversal, but a return to a more modest pace of hiring. Indicator May 2026 June 2026 (Forecast) Net Employment Change +88,000 jobs +10,000 jobs (expected) Unemployment Rate 6....
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Federal Reserve Signals Slower Rate Cuts Amid Economic Uncertainty

 

The Federal Reserve is poised to announce a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, reducing its benchmark rate from 4.6% to approximately 4.3%. This move follows a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point reduction in November. However, Fed officials are signaling a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with expectations of only two or three reductions compared to the four previously anticipated.

The central bank's policymakers are recalibrating their approach as inflation has significantly decreased from its peak of 7.2% in June 2022 to 2.3% in October. Despite this progress, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and the economy continues to grow robustly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for caution as the benchmark rate approaches a "neutral" level that neither stimulates nor hinders economic growth.

The upcoming presidential administration's proposed economic policies, including potential tariffs and tax cuts, add to the uncertainty surrounding future rate decisions. As a result, Americans may see only slight relief from high borrowing costs in the near future.




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