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BoC Held Again at 2.25% — But a Rate Hike Is Now More Likely Than Not Before Year-End

  Bond markets put the odds of an October 28 hike at 57%. Here's what the big banks are forecasting, what it means for your mortgage payment, and how to think about your next move. MoneySavings.ca · September 17, 2026 The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 — the seventh consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. On the surface, nothing changed. Below the surface, everything did. Governor Tiff Macklem's post-decision language was the most hawkish the Bank has sounded in over a year. He flagged that persistently high oil prices (Brent has since touched $107) and new U.S. tariffs — combined with Canada's own $27.6 billion retaliation list — are creating genuine upside risks to inflation. The BoC's August deliberations summary, released September 16, confirmed the Governing Council is now actively weighing a hike, not just a hold. The August CPI reading that came in on September 14 didn't settle anything: headline inflation held at ...
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Trump Threatens Economic Sanctions on Canada

 

In a dramatic return to the Oval Office, U.S. President Donald Trump has announced his intention to impose significant tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Trump, who was inaugurated for his second term just a day ago, stated that he plans to implement a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods starting February 1.

This announcement has sent shockwaves through the political and economic landscape, with Canadian leaders scrambling to respond. Ontario Premier Doug Ford emphasized the need for unity among Canadian provinces to confront Trump's aggressive trade policies. Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has expressed reluctance to fully support federal retaliation plans, citing concerns over Alberta's energy sector.

The proposed tariffs are part of a broader series of executive actions by Trump, which include withdrawing from the Paris climate accord and the World Health Organization, as well as threatening military action against drug cartels in Mexico. The situation remains fluid, with both countries bracing for potential economic fallout.


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