Mastering the Roll Up the Rim: Tim Hortons Contest Guru's Winning Formula

 

In just a few days, Tim Hortons will kick off its 2025 edition of the beloved Roll Up the Rim to Win contest. This year, the contest returns to its roots with physical cups, offering customers a chance to win prizes by rolling up the rim of their coffee cups. For the past few years, the contest was held virtually, but the return of the physical cups has reignited the interest of Michael Wallace, a statistics professor at the University of Waterloo and a self-proclaimed Roll Up the Rim champion.

Wallace first gained fame in 2020 when he discovered that the best time to play the contest was on the last day. By waiting until the final day, he managed to win 94 out of 96 plays, an impressive 98% success rate. This feat caught the attention of Tim Hortons, who initially suspected foul play but later understood Wallace's statistical prowess.

Using data provided by Tim Hortons' app, Wallace developed a formula to determine the optimal time to play. He found that the best time to play was at 3:17 a.m. Eastern, while the worst time was 11:45 a.m. Eastern, when many people were playing during lunch in Ontario and breakfast in British Columbia.

After taking a break from the contest last year, Wallace is back in the game, eager to test his theories with the return of the physical cups. He advises players to bring a reusable mug to get two digital chances to win, as the physical cup offers only a one-in-six chance of winning.

Wallace's theories hinge on whether the old rules remain in play, but he believes that playing during off-hours will increase the odds of winning. He also suggests avoiding the time he publicized years ago, as it may no longer be the optimal time to play.

With the return of the physical cups, Tim Hortons is offering two chances to win — one with the cup and one in the digital space. Wallace believes that as long as there are physical cups in play, players will have a better chance of winning digitally, as the number of entries will be split between digital and physical.

So, if you're looking to increase your odds of winning in this year's Roll Up the Rim to Win contest, consider playing during off-hours and using a reusable mug for extra digital chances. Happy rolling!