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Lock In or Wait? Why Two Big Banks Say Rates Are Going Up in October

  Published September 2, 2026 The Bank of Canada did exactly what all 35 economists in Reuters' latest poll expected today: it held its overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision, keeping the prime rate at 4.45%. Bond markets had priced in barely a 3% chance of anything else. What's not settled is what happens next — and on that question, Canada's biggest banks are more split than they've been all year. Four of the Big Six expect the Bank to sit tight through the end of 2026. Two expect it to start hiking as soon as October. If you're renewing a mortgage in the next few months, that gap isn't academic — it's the difference between locking in now and gambling on a rate cycle turning against you. The Split, Bank by Bank Here's where the six largest banks stand on where the overnight rate lands by the end of 2026: Bank Year-end 2026 call Stance BMO 2.25% (hold) Hold camp CIBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp RBC 2.25% (hold) Hold camp TD 2.25% (hold) Hold...

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Tariff Truce, but Trade Tensions Linger

 

A temporary pause in U.S. tariffs has provided a brief respite for Canada, yet uncertainty continues to cloud North American trade relations. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for 30 days—pending further border security and anti-drug measures—has momentarily stalled a looming trade war. However, Canadian officials and business leaders remain wary that this delay may only be a short intermission in a longer-term conflict.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has moved quickly by announcing initiatives such as a $1.3 billion border security plan, the appointment of a “fentanyl czar,” and the deployment of additional border personnel. Despite these measures, major Canadian unions and provincial leaders warn that the threat of reimposed tariffs could still jeopardize jobs and disrupt economic stability. Industries dependent on cross-border supply chains—from energy to manufacturing—are bracing for potential price increases and operational disruptions, with investors watching market responses closely.

While financial markets showed only a modest selloff after the announcement, many remain cautious about what future negotiations might bring. The administration’s focus on curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking has, for now, diverted immediate tariff implementation, but the possibility of renewed tariff action—potentially even extending to goods from the European Union—keeps uncertainty alive on both sides of the border.


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