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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Market Jitters Rise as Trump Sets Middle East Deadline

U.S. stock futures wavered Friday morning as geopolitical tensions escalated, with former President Donald Trump setting a two-week deadline for a decision on potential U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged slightly higher.

The market’s cautious tone followed a Juneteenth holiday pause and comes amid volatile oil prices, which have surged on fears that Iran could disrupt global supply by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures both climbed over 1%.

Trump’s ultimatum, delivered via the White House press secretary, added a fresh layer of uncertainty to already fragile investor sentiment. While some see the deadline as a window for diplomacy, Iran’s leadership has so far rejected calls to negotiate.

Meanwhile, European diplomats are scrambling to revive nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva, hoping to de-escalate the conflict. On the domestic front, investors are also digesting the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating a “data-dependent” approach to future cuts.

As markets brace for potential volatility, attention now turns to upcoming economic data and the expiration of $6.5 trillion in U.S. options contracts—a so-called “triple witching” event that could amplify market swings in the days ahead. 


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