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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...

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Trump's Tariff Blitz: EU and Mexico Face 30% Import Duties Amid Trade Tensions

In a dramatic escalation of global trade tensions, President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the United States will impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1st. The move follows weeks of stalled negotiations and marks a renewed push in Trump’s aggressive trade strategy.

Trump made the announcement via letters posted on his Truth Social account, citing the U.S. trade deficit with the EU and Mexico’s failure to curb fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration as key reasons for the new levies. He emphasized that the tariffs are intended to protect American manufacturing and national security interests.

The European Union responded swiftly, with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warning that the tariffs would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains” and pledging proportionate countermeasures if negotiations fail. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed hope for a resolution before the deadline, while reaffirming that Mexico’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.

The tariffs are part of a broader campaign by Trump, who has issued similar threats to over 20 other countries, including Canada, Japan, and Brazil, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%. Analysts warn that the sweeping measures could trigger a global trade backlash and strain diplomatic ties.

As the August deadline looms, all eyes are on whether Trump will hold firm or soften his stance—something he has done in previous tariff standoffs. Either way, the world’s largest trading relationships are entering a volatile new chapter.

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