Skip to main content

Featured

5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
Post a Comment
Read more

article

Labels

U.S. Deficit Outlook Darkens: $1 Trillion Surge in 10-Year Forecast

 

The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than estimated in January, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). The watchdog now forecasts a cumulative shortfall of $22.7 trillion from fiscal years 2026 to 2035, compared to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) earlier projection of $21.8 trillion.

The upward revision stems largely from the fiscal impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—a sweeping tax-and-spending package—and the continuation of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. While the CRFB estimates these tariffs could generate about $3.4 trillion in additional import duty revenue over the decade, the tax cuts and spending measures are expected to add $4.6 trillion to deficits, including interest costs.

Deficits are projected to dip slightly in 2025 to $1.7 trillion (5.6% of GDP) from $1.83 trillion in 2024, but then steadily climb, reaching $2.6 trillion (5.9% of GDP) by 2035. Net interest payments on the national debt are set to soar from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion by 2035, totaling $14 trillion over the decade.

The CRFB’s alternative scenario paints an even bleaker picture—deficits could swell by almost $7 trillion above the CBO baseline if certain tariffs are overturned in court and temporary tax cuts are extended.

This latest forecast underscores the mounting fiscal pressures facing the U.S., with rising interest costs and structural imbalances threatening to deepen the nation’s debt burden for years to come.

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment