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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Poland Downs Russian Drones in First Direct NATO Engagement of the War

A Polish Army member inspects a damaged house after Russian drones violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine Wednesday.

Poland has confirmed it shot down multiple Russian drones that violated its airspace during a massive overnight assault on Ukraine — marking the first time a NATO member has directly engaged Russian assets since the war began in 2022.

According to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a “huge number” of drones crossed into Polish skies, with those posing an immediate threat neutralized by Polish F-16s and allied NATO aircraft, including Dutch F-35s. The incursions occurred between late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, with some drones entering from Belarus.

Polish authorities described the incident as an “act of aggression” and placed the armed forces on high alert. Airspace over several airports, including Warsaw’s Chopin Airport, was temporarily closed during the operation. Ground teams are now searching for debris, warning civilians not to approach any unidentified objects.

NATO officials have expressed full solidarity with Poland, while European leaders called the violation deliberate and escalatory. The episode underscores growing concerns that Russia’s aerial campaign against Ukraine is spilling over into allied territory — a development that could test the alliance’s collective defense commitments.


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