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Canada’s Inflation Climbs to 2.4% in September, Driven by Food and Fuel
National Bank economists Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie wrote that unless recent inflation trends were “totally derailed/recast” by today’s data, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates again at its October 29 announcement.
Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.4% in September, up from 1.9% in August, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada. The increase was slightly higher than economists’ expectations of 2.2%, signaling renewed pressure on household budgets.
The uptick was largely fueled by grocery prices, which rose 4% year-over-year, and a smaller-than-expected decline in gasoline prices, which pushed the overall Consumer Price Index higher. Shelter costs also climbed 2.6%, while transportation rose 1.5%.
Economists note that while inflation remains within the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1–3%, the upward trend could complicate the central bank’s upcoming policy decision later this month. Markets are closely watching whether the bank will proceed with another rate cut or hold steady in light of the new figures.
For Canadian households, the latest numbers highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing rising food and housing costs against modest wage growth.
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