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5 Things to Know Today: BoC Hike Bets, TSX Slide, Oil Near $100 (Oct. 23)

  Canadian Money Brief • Friday, October 23, 2026 The Bank of Canada decision is five days away, the TSX gave back most of Wednesday's gains, and oil is flirting with US$100 again. Here are the five things Canadian wallets need to know today. 1. Markets Lean Toward a Bank of Canada Hike on Oct. 28 A decision that looked like a ninth straight hold is now a genuine coin flip with a hawkish tilt. After Governor Tiff Macklem warned that there is "no resolution in sight" for the Middle East conflict, BMO and Desjardins flipped to a hike call, Scotiabank firmed up its call and Goldman Sachs joined them, all looking for a quarter-point move to 2.50%. Overnight swaps priced about an 87% chance of a hike earlier this week, though other economists still argue for a hold, pointing to September's 68,000 job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate. What it means for you: A quarter-point hike adds roughly $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 of variable-rate borrowing (HELOCs an...
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Kremlin Warns of Retaliation Over Potential EU Travel Curbs on Diplomats

                                           Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

The Kremlin has vowed to respond if the European Union moves forward with plans to restrict the travel of Russian diplomats within the bloc.

EU member states are reportedly nearing an agreement on measures that would require Russian envoys to notify authorities before traveling outside their host country, giving governments the option to deny entry. The proposal, part of a broader sanctions package, is aimed at curbing espionage and hybrid operations allegedly conducted under diplomatic cover.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Moscow would not leave such restrictions unanswered. “Of course there will be a response. Our diplomatic service will formulate proposals, and they will be implemented,” he told reporters, accusing European governments of “reviving their skills in erecting new dividing walls.”

The EU has already expelled dozens of Russian diplomats since the start of the war in Ukraine, citing security concerns. If approved, the new travel restrictions would mark the first bloc-wide measure targeting the mobility of Russian diplomatic staff.

Analysts warn that any tit-for-tat retaliation by Moscow could further strain already fragile diplomatic channels between Russia and the West.


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