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5 Things to Know Today — September 22, 2026

  September 22, 2026 BoC hike odds reach a coin flip. Oil retreats from four-month highs. Trump's Belarus potash play draws fire. A new federal bill speeds up major projects — with strings attached. Here's what moves your money today. 1. BoC October Hike Is Now a Coin Flip The Bank of Canada next meets October 28 , and markets are evenly split on whether it will raise rates for the first time since cutting to 2.25%. The whiplash is largely imported: after the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first American rate increase since July 2023 — market-implied odds of a matching BoC move jumped from below 10% to roughly 60% in two weeks, according to LSEG Data & Analytics. Before the BoC's September 2 hold, odds of a hold sat at 94%. The 175-basis-point gap between the BoC (2.25%) and the Fed (3.75–4.00%) is the widest since 2022, which puts direct downward pressure on the loonie and upward pressure on Ca...
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Ottawa Faces Fiscal Strain as India Pushes Back on Diplomatic Staffing

 

                                           Prime Minister Mark Carney     

A new economic outlook warns that Canada’s federal finances are under mounting pressure, even as diplomatic tensions with India deepen.

A report from Desjardins deputy chief economist Randall Bartlett projects Ottawa’s deficit will reach $74.5 billion this fiscal year, about $6 billion higher than the parliamentary budget officer’s forecast. The analysis points to recent tax cuts, the removal of counter-tariffs, and increased spending on defence and infrastructure as key drivers of the shortfall.

Meanwhile, relations with India remain strained. Indian High Commissioner Dinesh Patnaik rejected claims from Foreign Minister Anita Anand that New Delhi had agreed to restore Canada’s full diplomatic presence. Patnaik emphasized that trust must be rebuilt and that Ottawa must first resolve delays in accrediting Indian staff in Canada.

The dual challenges — fiscal uncertainty at home and diplomatic friction abroad — come just weeks before the federal government unveils its fall budget, a moment that could shape both Canada’s economic trajectory and its global standing.


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