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5 Things to Know Today: US Inflation Day, Canada’s Job Losses and Oil Near $106 | Oct. 14, 2026

  Canadian Money Brief  |  Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Good morning. The biggest number of the day lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could shape where mortgage rates and the loonie go next. Here are the five things worth knowing before you start your day. 1 US inflation report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET September U.S. CPI is the last major inflation reading before the Fed meets Oct. 27–28. Economists expect headline inflation to climb to roughly 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4% in August, a gasoline-driven jump of about 0.6% on the month, while core inflation is seen cooling to around 0.2% month over month. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, but September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, and markets now see roughly a one-in-four chance of another hike in October, with December still largely priced in. What it means for you: A hotter-than-expected print can push bond yields higher, and Canadian fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year bond. A cooler one eases the pressu...
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TSX Edges Lower as Markets Brace for Bank of Canada Decision and Federal Budget Day



Tuesday, April 28, 2026 | moneysavings.ca/canadian-money-brief

Canadian markets are navigating a high-stakes Tuesday with two major macro events dominating the conversation: Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne's Spring Economic Update — tabled in Parliament today — and tomorrow's eagerly anticipated Bank of Canada rate decision.

TSX Pulls Back Monday, Eyes Mixed Open Tuesday

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed Monday at 33,818 points, slipping 0.25% as stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks cooled risk appetite heading into one of the busiest weeks on the Canadian financial calendar. The index remains up nearly 6% over the past month, reflecting the broader resilience of Canadian equities against a backdrop of global uncertainty.

Banking stocks traded in split fashion. BMO and TD each added 0.4%, while Brookfield Asset Management shed 1.7% and Fairfax Financial dropped 2.6% ahead of its earnings release. Shopify fell 1.4% as investors waited on a slate of major U.S. tech earnings due later in the week.

Energy was the standout sector. Canadian Natural Resources gained 1.2% and Imperial Oil climbed 1% as crude prices extended gains driven by tight global supply. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained by the ongoing Middle East conflict, keeping a floor under oil prices and lending support to Canada's energy-heavy index.

Today's Big Story: Spring Economic Update 2026

The Champagne government is rolling out its Spring Economic Update today in Ottawa — the first major fiscal statement since a new Liberal government took office earlier this year. The update is expected to outline Ottawa's plan to "build the strongest economy in the G7," with details on trade diversification, infrastructure investment, and measures to support Canadians facing cost-of-living pressures.

Markets will be watching closely for any signals on federal borrowing, stimulus spending, and how Ottawa plans to manage the economic fallout from ongoing U.S.–Canada trade tensions. Any surprises on the deficit or spending side could move bond yields and the loonie.

BoC Rate Call: Hold Expected, But Tone Matters

All eyes then shift to Wednesday, April 29, when the Bank of Canada announces its latest rate decision alongside a full Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The policy rate has sat at 2.25% since the most recent adjustment, with the BoC holding for a third consecutive meeting in March amid a cocktail of oil price shocks, tariff uncertainty, and a sluggish domestic growth outlook.

Markets broadly expect another hold. However, the MPR's language around inflation — particularly risks of tariff cost pass-through to consumers — and the Bank's tone on geopolitical risks will be closely parsed. Some economists at Scotiabank and CIBC are pencilling in rate increases of up to 75 basis points by year-end if inflationary pressures from tariffs and energy prices prove sticky.

Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will hold a press conference at approximately 10:30 a.m. ET.

Loonie & Commodities Watch

  • CAD/USD: The Canadian dollar remains sensitive to oil price movements and any hawkish shift in BoC language. Watch for volatility around the Spring Economic Update and Wednesday's rate call.
  • Oil (WTI): Prices extended their recent gains amid supply concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz. A wider spread between current and 18-month futures prices signals that markets view the disruption as temporary — but the premium is significant.
  • Gold: Pulled back slightly Monday, which weighed on mining stocks, though the longer-term trend remains supportive given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Numbers to Watch

Indicator Latest Change
S&P/TSX Composite 33,818 −0.25% (Mon.)
BoC Overnight Rate 2.25% Hold (since Mar. 18)
Bank Prime Rate 4.45% Unchanged
TSX YTD (1 month) +5.90% —

The Bottom Line

April 28 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential days of the Canadian financial calendar so far this year. Between a federal budget update and the eve of a central bank decision, expect heightened volatility — particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, utilities, and financials. Energy stocks may continue to benefit from elevated oil prices, but the broader market's direction will hinge on whether Ottawa's fiscal plans and the BoC's tone reassure or unsettle investors.

Stay tuned to the Canadian Money Brief for live updates throughout the day.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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