Friday is a quiet one south of the border — U.S. equity and bond markets are fully closed today in observance of Juneteenth, a federal holiday. With Wall Street dark, global attention has shifted to how markets everywhere else are digesting two big developments: the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate-hold this week and a landmark U.S.–Iran interim peace agreement that is now reshaping the energy outlook in real time. Canadian investors are not off the hook — the TSX is open and closed Thursday's session in the red, weighed down by sinking oil and mining stocks.
At a Glance — Thursday Close / Friday as of Writing
| S&P/TSX Composite | 34,969 ▼ ‑0.44% |
| S&P 500 (Thu. close) | ~7,501 ▲ +1.08% |
| Nasdaq (Thu. close) | 26,518 ▲ +1.91% |
| Dow Jones (Thu. close) | 51,565 ▲ +0.14% |
| WTI Crude Oil | ~US$77/bbl ▼ ‑38% from Apr. high |
| Gold (spot) | ~US$4,178/oz ▼ Pulling back |
| CAD/USD | ~0.714 (USD/CAD ~1.400) |
| Nikkei 225 (Fri. close) | 71,250 ▲ +0.28% ⭐ Record |
Sources: MSN Money, Trading Economics, CNBC, MarketScreener, JM Bullion. Thu. close figures used where Fri. U.S. data is unavailable due to Juneteenth holiday.
🍁 Canada — TSX Slides on Energy and Mining Weakness
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed Thursday at 34,969, down 155 points or 0.44%, as a broad selloff in energy and mining stocks offset strength in the financial sector. The index's 52-week range runs from 26,443 to 35,630 — so while the TSX remains near multi-year highs on a trailing basis, it has given back some ground over the last few sessions.
Energy stocks were the standout drag. Falling oil prices — driven by improving conditions in the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.–Iran interim peace deal — hammered Canada's oil producers. Suncor Energy shed roughly 2.5% and Canadian Natural Resources lost about 1.4%. Imperial Oil also declined. This matters: energy is one of the TSX's largest sectors, and whenever WTI slides sharply, Canadian producers feel it almost immediately.
Mining and precious metals also underperformed, with gold retreating from recent highs. Barrick Gold fell roughly 2.6% and Wheaton Precious Metals slipped about 0.8%.
On the positive side, bank stocks provided a cushion. RBC, TD Bank, and BMO each gained around 1%, while Scotiabank added close to 2%, benefiting from lower Canadian bond yields and relief that the Fed's hawkish tone was already largely priced in.
What this means for Canadians: If you hold Canadian energy ETFs or individual energy names in your RRSP or TFSA, expect continued volatility over the coming weeks as oil markets reprice around the Hormuz situation. The drop in oil prices is also a double-edged sword — it could mean cheaper gas at the pump this summer, but it puts pressure on Alberta's economy and federal energy revenues.
🇺🇸 United States — Markets Closed for Juneteenth; Thursday Was a Tech-Led Rally
U.S. stock and bond markets are closed today, Friday June 19, in observance of the Juneteenth federal holiday. Trading resumes Monday, June 22. Futures markets operated on a limited basis, with equity futures halted at 1 p.m. ET.
Thursday's session — the last one before the long weekend — was a good one for American equities. The S&P 500 rose approximately 1.08%, the Nasdaq surged 1.91% (tech and semiconductors led), and the Dow gained 0.14%, adding 72 points to close near 51,565. Technology stocks and cyclicals pushed markets higher despite a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve.
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% this week — as was widely expected — but the language was notably hawkish. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first rate-setting meeting as chair signalled that a rate hike could be on the table later in 2026 if inflation does not cooperate. Markets initially sold off on Wednesday on that message, then rallied back Thursday as the Iran peace deal overshadowed the Fed's tone. The CME's rate expectations show investors rapidly scaling back hopes for near-term cuts.
What this means for Canadians: The Fed's hawkish posture is relevant here. The Bank of Canada has held its rate at 2.25% for several consecutive meetings. A more aggressive Fed — if it does hike — widens the rate differential between Canada and the U.S., which typically puts downward pressure on the Canadian dollar and keeps borrowing costs elevated for longer.
🛒 Oil & Commodities — WTI Rebounds to $77 But Weekly Loss Is Massive
WTI crude oil rose about 0.61% to approximately US$77 per barrel on Friday, a modest bounce after briefly falling below $75 on Thursday — a level not seen since early March. Despite today's uptick, crude is on course for an enormous weekly decline. WTI has now shed roughly 38% from its April peak, erasing nearly all of the gains recorded since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February.
The catalyst is clear: the U.S. and Iran have signed an interim peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — is reopening. U.S. Central Command confirmed it has lifted restrictions on traffic to and from Iranian ports. Tankers that had been stranded are now moving through the waterway. Kuwait has said it will begin increasing production, and major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are expected to restart millions of barrels of halted output.
The IEA has also warned of a supply overhang next year as production resumes, adding further bearish pressure on prices.
Gold is trading around US$4,178 per ounce as of Friday morning, pulling back from recent highs as energy-related inflation fears ease and the safe-haven bid fades. Gold hit a record high of US$5,602 in late January 2026 and has retreated more than 17% since. Analysts remain cautious, noting that the loonie has increasingly tracked gold rather than oil in recent months — a notable shift from historical patterns.
What this means for Canadians: Cheaper oil is a mixed blessing for Canada. Yes, fuel prices at the pump should ease — welcome news for families already stretched by the cost of living. But lower oil revenues hurt Alberta, and they erode the value of Canada's commodity-heavy export base, which in turn can weaken the Canadian dollar further.
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar — Loonie Stuck Near 71 Cents
The Canadian dollar continues to trade near 71.4–71.5 cents U.S. (USD/CAD approximately 1.399–1.401), hovering around the 1.40 mark. The loonie has been largely range-bound, facing pressure from several directions: a more hawkish U.S. Fed, falling oil prices, and lingering uncertainty around a Canada–U.S. trade accord.
Economists at National Bank of Canada note that gold has emerged as a stronger near-term driver of the loonie than oil — a shift from historical norms — and gold's current retreat is a headwind. Their year-end USD/CAD target sits at 1.35, but they acknowledge a sustained loonie rally likely requires Ottawa to secure a trade deal with Washington this summer.
What this means for Canadians: A weak loonie makes everything imported more expensive — from groceries to electronics to travel in the U.S. If you're planning a cross-border trip, the exchange rate continues to sting. For investors with U.S.-denominated assets in their portfolio, the weak CAD has been a tailwind to returns in Canadian dollar terms.
🌎 Global Markets — Nikkei Hits Record; European Bourses Mixed
With Wall Street dark, global markets had to find their own footing today. The results were mixed.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was the standout winner, closing at a fresh all-time record of 71,250.06, up 0.28% — extending a remarkable run. The Topix fell slightly (-0.57%). Risk-on sentiment tied to the Iran peace deal and ongoing AI-driven demand for semiconductors continue to support Japanese equities.
European markets were mixed but generally calm in thin trade. London's FTSE 100 edged down about 0.11%, weighed by slipping metals miners. Germany's DAX gained roughly 0.15–0.17%, with defence giant Rheinmetall surging 1.6%. France's CAC 40 rose about 0.24%, aided by gains in autos and luxury names. Italy's FTSE MIB outperformed, up about 0.55%, led partly by defense company Leonardo (+3.1%).
In Asia, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.13%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.92%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 2.02%, and mainland Chinese markets were closed for a holiday.
Geopolitical noise persists. In the U.K., the Labour leadership picture shifted after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won a by-election by 20 percentage points, putting him in a formal position to challenge incumbent PM Keir Starmer — a development that briefly weighed on U.K. gilt yields.
The Bottom Line for Canadians
This week's big story is oil — and by extension, the TSX. The U.S.–Iran deal is a game-changer for energy markets, wiping out nearly all of oil's 2026 conflict premium. For Canadian consumers, that could mean relief at the gas pump heading into summer. For Canadian investors, energy and mining exposure is taking a hit. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish hold reinforces that rates in both Canada and the U.S. are not coming down quickly, keeping pressure on mortgages and borrowing costs. Next week, all eyes return to U.S. markets reopening Monday, June 22, plus any further Hormuz updates and Bank of Canada commentary.
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