Canadian Money Brief: TSX Holds Steady as Wall Street Hits Records, Oil Slides to 5-Month Low

 

Friday, July 3, 2026

U.S. markets are closed today for Independence Day (observed, since July 4 falls on a Saturday this year) and reopen Monday, July 6. Here's a recap of Thursday's session in Canada, the U.S., and Europe, plus how Asian and European markets are trading today as they react to Thursday's soft American jobs report.

Thursday's Close

S&P/TSX Composite	34,966.67 (+109.68, +0.31%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average	52,900.07 (+1.14%, record close)
S&P 500	7,483.24 (essentially flat, +0.01 pts)
Nasdaq Composite	25,832.67 (-207.36, -0.80%)
WTI Crude (Aug. contract)	US$68.69/bbl (+11¢)
Gold (Aug. contract)	US$4,125.70/oz (+$43.30)
Canadian Dollar	70.52¢ US (from 70.37¢ Tuesday)

🇨🇦 Canada: TSX Gains on Tech and Materials Strength

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 109.68 points, or 0.31%, to close at 34,966.67 on Thursday, driven by gains in the technology and basic materials sectors. Brianne Gardner, senior wealth manager at Velocity Investment Partners with Raymond James, said she expects materials to be "one of the strongest-performing sectors over the next 12 months," supported by higher precious metal prices.

Trade policy stayed in the background after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Wednesday that the U.S. is not renewing CUSMA "in its current form" — though the agreement remains in place while negotiations continue. Gardner said the uncertainty around CUSMA will likely remain a headline risk but isn't necessarily a reason to avoid the TSX: "Any modernization [of CUSMA] could create opportunities in Canadian sectors like energy specifically, defence, transportation, and even domestic supply chains."

The Canadian dollar firmed slightly to 70.52 cents US, up from 70.37 cents on Tuesday.

🇺🇸 United States: Dow Sets a Record, Chips Slide Again

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 594.83 points, or 1.14%, to a record close of 52,900.07 on Thursday, touching a fresh intraday all-time high of 52,903.85 along the way. The S&P 500 barely moved, closing essentially flat at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% to 25,832.67 as semiconductor stocks sold off for a second straight session. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.55% to 2,996.11, and the VIX fell 2.65% to 16.15.

The catalyst was a softer-than-expected June jobs report, released a day early because of Friday's holiday: U.S. employers added just 57,000 jobs, well below the roughly 100,000-115,000 economists had forecast. The weaker print eased near-term Fed rate-hike concerns and lifted most of the market, even as chip stocks stumbled on renewed valuation worries — the VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped 4.5%, with Teradyne down 13.6%, KLA off 11.5%, Nvidia down 1.4%, and Micron sliding 5.5%.

Tesla shares sank as much as 7.3% despite reporting second-quarter deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, well above the roughly 406,600 Wall Street had expected — a reminder that even strong headline numbers aren't guaranteed to move a stock the "right" way. Netflix, by contrast, jumped 5% on no clearly identified catalyst, its best day since late February.

U.S. markets are closed today for Independence Day (observed) and reopen Monday, July 6.

🇪🇺 Europe: Fresh Records, With Banks and Luxury Leading

European shares closed at record highs on Thursday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 finishing up 1.4%. London's FTSE 100 climbed 1.7% to 10,652.87, an over two-month high, with healthcare and consumer names leading after AstraZeneca gained nearly 5% on a licensing deal with China's CSPC Pharmaceutical Group worth up to $1.77 billion. Germany's DAX rose about 2% to 25,580.88 and France's CAC 40 added 1.65% to 8,474.86, both fresh records, while Italy's FTSE MIB gained 1.6%. Notably, the STOXX 600 tech subindex actually fell nearly 2.4% even as the broader index hit records — gains were concentrated in banks and luxury names instead: UniCredit rose 4% on the final day of its takeover offer for Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank added more than 5%, and Hermès and LVMH both climbed over 3%. Defense stocks rallied too, with Rheinmetall up 6%.

European markets opened higher again today, extending Thursday's record run on the back of the soft U.S. jobs data, though gains had moderated to roughly flat by late morning trading.

🌏 Asia-Pacific: Broad Rally Today on the Jobs Miss

Asian markets are trading higher today as investors react to Thursday's weaker U.S. payrolls print. Japan's Nikkei 225 is leading gains, up 1.36%, with the Topix up 1.17%. South Korea's Kospi has surged 4.65% (though the Kosdaq is down 1.68%), Australia's S&P/ASX 200 has added 1.39%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 1.57%, mainland China's CSI 300 has gained 1.15%, and Taiwan's Taiex is up 0.2%.

The U.S. dollar index is on track for its biggest weekly decline in almost three months following the jobs data. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 53.5% chance of the Fed raising rates by at least a quarter point in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool, after the Fed held steady in July.

Commodities & the Loonie

Oil was little changed Thursday, with the August WTI contract up just 11 cents to US$68.69 a barrel, hovering near its lowest levels since late February as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover — flows are now topping 10 million barrels a day as the UAE restored exports to pre-conflict levels and Saudi Arabia ramped up sales to Asia. The next round of U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar is on hold until after July 4, out of respect for the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader.

Gold rose $43.30 to US$4,125.70 an ounce on the August contract, supported by the same rate-hike relief lifting equities.

The Canadian dollar ticked up slightly to 70.52 cents US Thursday, from 70.37 cents on Tuesday, but remains near a one-year low against the greenback after weakening more than 2% over the past month. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% and signalled it sees risks on both sides of its inflation and employment mandate.

What We're Watching Next

• U.S. markets reopen Monday, July 6, after the July 4 long weekend.
• Bank of Canada's next rate decision lands July 15 — worth watching closely after the June U.S. jobs miss.
• CUSMA's annual review process is now underway following the U.S.'s decision not to renew the pact in its current form.
• U.S.-Iran talks in Qatar are on pause until after July 4, with Strait of Hormuz shipping flows still a key swing factor for oil prices.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Canadian, U.S., and European figures reflect Thursday, July 2, 2026 closing data; Asian and European intraday figures reflect trading on Friday, July 3, 2026 as available at time of writing. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.