Oil Breaks $90 as Mideast Conflict Escalates: Markets Today

 

Monday, July 20, 2026

Crude oil is the story investors are watching to start the week. Brent crude jumped roughly 3% and pushed past US$90 a barrel overnight — its highest level since June — after the United States and Iran escalated attacks in the Middle East over the weekend, curbing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. equity futures are pointing higher after Friday's tech-led selloff, European stocks opened mixed, and the Canadian dollar is getting a modest lift from firmer crude. Here's where every major market stood heading into today's session.

🇨🇦 TSX & Canadian Dollar

Index / Asset	Last Close	Change
S&P/TSX Composite	35,263.85	−76.30 (−0.22%)
USD/CAD	1.4020	−0.10% (loonie firmer)

The TSX closed Friday's session modestly lower, with financials and materials offsetting continued strength in energy names. The loonie is holding near its best levels in about a month, at roughly 1.40 per U.S. dollar, as Canada's status as a major oil exporter cushions it against the same crude spike that's rattling importers. With Brent now testing $90 this morning, expect energy-heavy TSX names (think Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus) to be in focus at the open.

🇺🇸 Wall Street

Index	Friday's Close	Change
S&P 500	7,457.69	−76.08 (−1.01%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average	52,146.42	−406.55 (−0.77%)
Nasdaq Composite	25,520.24	−361.71 (−1.40%)

U.S. stocks closed out their first losing week in three on Friday, dragged down by a deepening selloff in semiconductor names amid concerns that AI hyperscalers could pare back infrastructure spending. For the week, the S&P 500 fell about 1.6%, the Nasdaq slid roughly 2.9%, and the Dow dropped near 0.9%. This morning, however, futures are pointing to a higher open: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures are both in positive territory and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was recently up about 0.2% in premarket trading, as chipmakers attempt to stabilize. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.55% and markets are pricing better than an 87% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its late-July meeting.

🇪🇺 Europe

European markets opened Monday's session on a cautious note, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down about 0.2% shortly after the bell as most regional sectors traded lower. Energy shares are the exception, climbing roughly 1.5% alongside the jump in crude, while technology stocks are up modestly in early dealing. Traders are also positioning ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank decision, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

🌏 Asia-Pacific

Index	Friday's Close	Change
Nikkei 225 (Japan)	64,141.12	−4.03%
Kospi (South Korea)	6,516.27	−4.46%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong)	25,143.05	+2.36%
Shanghai Composite	3,796.28	+0.85%
S&P/ASX 200 (Australia)	8,791.30	−0.06%

Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi both sold off sharply on Friday, capping a rough week for semiconductor-heavy indexes, with the Nikkei and Topix logging weekly losses of roughly 6.4% and 2.9% respectively. Hong Kong and mainland China bucked the regional trend and finished higher. With crude extending its climb into the new week, watch for energy importers like Japan and South Korea to come under renewed pressure while oil-linked and export-heavy names elsewhere hold up better.

🛢️ Commodities

Commodity	Price (today)	Change
Brent Crude	~US$90.80/bbl	+3.05% (highest since June 11)
WTI Crude	~US$84.70/bbl	+2.65% (highest since June 12)
Gold (spot)	~US$3,990/oz	roughly flat

Oil is by far the day's biggest mover. Brent and WTI both jumped roughly 3% in overnight trade after the U.S. carried out a ninth straight night of strikes against Iran and Iranian-linked forces reportedly struck U.S. allies Kuwait and Bahrain over the weekend. A vessel was also reported on fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Both benchmarks extend gains after climbing nearly 16% last week alone — their biggest weekly advance since the spring. Notably, gold hasn't caught much of a safe-haven bid this time around: with oil-driven inflation fears pushing up bets on higher-for-longer interest rates, gold has been trading more like a rate-sensitive asset than a traditional geopolitical hedge in recent sessions.

💡 What It Means for You

A sustained move above $90 Brent tends to show up at the Canadian pump within days, not weeks — so budget for gas prices to tick higher through late July if the Strait of Hormuz disruption drags on. On the flip side, a firmer oil price is generally good news for the loonie and for TSX-listed energy producers, which may partly offset higher fuel costs if you hold Canadian energy stocks or ETFs. If you're carrying a variable-rate mortgage or line of credit, keep an eye on this: renewed inflation pressure from higher oil is one more reason the Bank of Canada could stay in "hold" mode for longer, even as U.S. rate-hold odds sit near 88% for this month.

📅 Looking Ahead

• Strait of Hormuz shipping data and any further escalation between the U.S. and Iran will remain the top market driver this week.
• The European Central Bank's rate decision lands Thursday, July 23; a hold is widely expected.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve's next decision follows on July 28–29, with markets currently leaning toward a hold.
• Watch Canadian energy names and the loonie for the most direct read-through from today's oil spike.

Market data reflects the most recent available closing prices and early Monday trading levels as of publication and can change quickly given the fluid situation in the Middle East. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.